India is likely to have much older population later this century as the country’s age structure is beginning to shift and fertility fallen “below replacement”, Moody’s Ratings said on Tuesday.
Moody’s said population growth has long been a tailwind for economic growth and creditworthiness, but falling fertility is now changing that picture.
Fewer workers will limit productive capacity, while fewer households and consumers will weaken demand. As a result, countries will have to rely more on productivity to sustain growth.
Moody’s said the global fertility rate has declined from 4.9 children per woman in 1950 to around 2.2 today, only slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1.
“What makes this episode particularly significant is that many of the world’s largest economies are aging at the same time. In fact, more than 70 per cent of the world’s population now lives in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level,” Moody’s said in a report on global demographics.
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