The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in a monthly update that most recent data for 2Q26 suggests that the Indian economy remains on a resilient footing overall. Consumption indicators held up, unemployment was broadly stable, industrial production growth remained firm and non-food credit growth strengthened further, while the services sector continued to provide steady momentum. Renewed geopolitical tensions have nonetheless revived external downside risks via the energy import bill and the currency. The rupee has been among the weaker major emerging-market currencies, weakening to record lows against the dollar as higher energy costs weighed on the external balance. Inflation risks have risen accordingly, while a weak monsoon and second-round cost pressures point to rising food and core inflation, although the retreat in precious-metals prices has provided a partial offset.
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