The El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and is likely to become “very strong” in late 2026 and early 2027, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University said, raising concerns over elevated climate risk for India.
In its latest ENSO forecast, published on September 21, the IRI said the Nino 3.4 index, a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September.
All 22 models it surveyed, 13 dynamical and nine statistical, forecast “very strong” El Nino conditions through the 2026-27 winter.
The IRI put the probability of El Nino at 100 per cent through February 2027, falling to 61 per cent by mid-2027. It said the event could rank among the strongest on record.
The institute also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to become strongly positive from September through December 2026 before returning toward neutral conditions in early 2027. A positive IOD often occurs alongside El Nino, though the two can ..
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